When it’s all said and done, Jason Kidd will retire from the National Basketball Association as one of the greatest point guards the league has ever seen. At 38 years old, Kidd still gives the Mavericks extreme stability at the point guard position. He has increased his minutes, FG%, 3P%, RPG, SPG, and PPG in the playoffs over his regular season averages. And although he isn’t as quick as he once was, Kidd can still push the ball very effectively for his age. He is the epitome of a seasoned vet, as Kidd will be making his third appearance in the NBA Final (previous trips in 2001-03). Kidd, as he has done his entire career, always looks to get his teammates involved in the offense before looking for his own shot. He is one of the premier passing point guards in the league and his ability to place the ball in his teammates hands so they are in a position to score, has always been a remarkable talent. Kidd averaged 6 points, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, and shot 40% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Heat.
The point guard position in Miami is somewhat of an illusion. Yes, Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have found themselves splitting the minutes during the 2011 playoffs (Chalmers 22.7 MPG, Bibby 22.3 MPG). However, LeBron James is the primary ball handler on the Heat’s roster, and usually commands the ball the majority of the game, especially in crunch time. Having said that, Bibby and Chalmers are still called upon to play a key role on this Heat’s roster. Bibby is a proven clutch shooter in the league, although he has struggled mightily in these playoffs (shooting just 27.8% from the field). Bibby’s biggest downfall when he is on the court is definitely his defense. He has been a defensive liability at the point guard position dating back to his days with Sacramento. Chalmers certainly brings more of a defensive presence when he is on the court, and has actually shot rather effectively in the playoffs thus far (44.0% from the field). Chalmers averaged 10.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and shot 40% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Mavericks. Mike Bibby didn’t play against the Dallas Mavericks as a member of the Miami Heat this season.
I think Kidd could be the most important player in this series for the Mavericks. Neither Bibby nor Chalmers will challenge Kidd the way Russell Westbrook did in the Western Conference Finals. He should be able to preserve some of his energy for the offensive side of the court, since Bibby and Chalmers really don’t attack very often on offense. In his two NBA Finals appearances (10 games), Kidd has averaged 20.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 8.8 APG, and shot 40.1% from the field. Look for the Mavericks to have the upper hand in this match up.
Edge: Kidd and the Mavericks
Shooting Guard Match Up
The Mavericks start 10 year veteran DeShawn Stevenson at the off guard position. Stevenson is an above average defender on the perimeter, and will most likely draw the Dwayne Wade assignment for much of the finals. Stevenson only logged around 16 minutes per game during the regular season (15.3 for this postseason), as the Mavericks like to showcase Jason Terry as much as possible (Terry will be profiled in the bench section of this preview). Stevenson has struggled from an offensive standpoint thus far in the playoffs. His playoff PPG, FG%, and 3P% are all below his regular season averages. I think it’s worth noting that Stevenson is another one of those players who “wears his emotions on his sleeve”. Due to his physical and tenacious defense, Stevenson has been known to get under the skin of his fellow opponents. And since Stevenson has never been one to back down from confrontations during his NBA career, I would imagine his match up with Dwayne Wade should be a fun one to watch. Stevenson averaged 5.5 points in his two regular season match ups against the Heat.
Overlooked during the Heat’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals victory over the Bulls were the struggles of Dwayne Wade. Wade is without question one of the upper echelon players in the league today. However, he just didn’t look like himself during the conference finals. Wade’s PPG (-6.7) and FG% (-9.5) were both down significantly over his season averages during the five game series against Chicago. Yes, Chicago was statistically the best defensive team in the NBA this season. However, in Wade’s three regular season games against the Bulls he averaged 29 PPG and 46.7% from the field. Wade seemed to be favoring his left shoulder for much of the Heat’s game five victory in Chicago. I would imagine that this has to be a concern for the Heat entering their match up with the Mavericks. Hopefully, the extra off days will enable Wade to get rest and be close to 100%. As mentioned above, when healthy Wade is one of the most dynamic players in the league. He is a high energy player who can light it up from the perimeter, as well as penetrate past his defender. Additionally, Wade is the premier shooting guard in the league at getting to the foul line. During the regular season, Wade led all NBA shooting guards in free throw attempts per game (8.6). He averaged 22 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 48.6% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Mavericks.
Injury or no injury, the Heat still have a huge advantage at this positional match up. You can’t underestimate the significance of playing in high-profile games such as these. Wade returns to the NBA Finals for the second time in his 7 year career. He was named NBA Finals MVP against this same Dallas Mavericks team back in 2006. During that series, Wade averaged an impressive 34.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 46.8% from the field. Although Stevenson is a more than capable defender, it’s hard to imagine him sustaining any long-term success against Wade in this series.
Edge: Wade and the Heat
Small Forward Match up
Shawn Marion was sensational in the Mavericks series clinching victory on Wednesday night against the Thunder. It what was reminiscent of Marion during his heyday with the Suns, the 11 year veteran scored 26 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and added 3 blocked shots. Marion doesn’t possess the same explosiveness that he once did, however he is still one of the more athletic players on the Mavericks roster. Marion looks to do his damage by getting out on fast breaks and finishing near the rim. He is a more than capable jump shooter, however the Mavericks have such a plethora of outside shooting that his is rarely asked to contribute in that department. Marion’s low arch and quick release enables him to get his shot off fairly easily. The veteran is coming off a very productive series against the Oklahoma City Thunder which saw him average 14.2 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.6 SPG and 50% from the field. He will be the lucky winner in the “who gets to defend LeBron James” sweepstakes. Marion averaged 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 39.3% from the field in two regular season games against the Heat.
“The King” finally appears to be living up to all the hype. Listen, James has produced from the moment he arrived in the league back in 2003, there is no denying that. However, when you put a target on your back, like he did with his “decision” to leave Cleveland for Miami, the expectations increase sevenfold. Simply put, it’s championship or bust for King James. Anything else will be regarded as a failure by the general public, and most certainly himself. Having said that, James has produced like a superstar should during these playoffs. He is averaging 26.0 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.5 BPG, 1.7 SPG, and 46.3% from the field during the 2011 playoffs. Most importantly, James is producing when it counts the most for the Heat; in late game situations. He has knocked down countless shots during the playoffs which have either tied the game, or given the Heat the lead. He is the most athletically gifted player in the league. There isn’t too much that LeBron James can’t do on the basketball court right now. James averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 30.8% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Mavericks.
This is the moment LeBron James envisioned when he decided to join the Miami Heat in the off-season. Similar to Nowitzki, he might very well be playing the best basketball of his NBA career. James will continue to be the focal point of the Heat’s offense in this series. Marion actually matches up quite well against James, however I doubt he will be able to cover James in the low post situations. Look for James to command double teams early and often against the Mavericks defenders. His ability to find the open man might be his biggest strength during this series.
Edge: James and the Heat
Power Forward Match Up
Dirk Nowitzki is playing the best basketball of his NBA career. During these playoffs, Nowitzki has delivered time and time again for the Mavericks. In 15 playoff games, Nowitzki is averaging 28.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 51.7 FG%, 51.6 3P%, and 92.9 FT%. Nowitzki is nearly impossible to cover with the ball in his hands. A legitimate seven footer, Nowitzki can get his shot off at any time. He is surprisingly agile for his size, which allows him to get past most power forwards in the league. You can’t really put a small forward on him, as Nowitzki might be the best player in the league with his back to the basket. This presents somewhat of a double edged sword for opposing coaches to deal with. Simply put, Nowitzki is an opposing coaches match up nightmare. Making matters worse for the Heat, Nowitzki’s confidence level is at an all time high entering these finals. He has averaged 24 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 38.6% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Heat.
Chris Bosh is coming off a terrific Eastern Conference Finals against the Chicago Bulls. Bosh averaged 23.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 60% from the field in the five games versus Chicago. Bosh is an excellent team defender and rebounder for head coach Eric Spoelstra. He is capable of grabbing 12 plus rebounds on any given night for the Heat. If there is one complaint that I have about Bosh, it’s the fact that he can be too unselfish at times. I understand that James and Wade are the primary scorers for the Heat, however Bosh is one of the better low post players in the league. I think if he looked to be more aggressive at times, he would probably produce at an even higher level. He is a solid post player, as well as an extremely effective scorer from the elbow (terrific jump shot from 15-18 feet out). Bosh averaged 20.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 51.7% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Mavericks.
This could be the best match up of the finals. Both Nowitzki and Bosh are two of the premier big men in the league right now. I have my doubts that Bosh will be able to stay with Nowitzki on the perimeter. Nowitzki does such a great job of creating space with his back downs and dribbling, and compliments it with an unguardable step back jump shot. Coach Spoelstra will certainly look to attack Nowitzki in the post with Bosh to try to get him in early foul trouble. However, it is Bosh whom I believe will be limited in this series due to the tough match up against Nowitzki (especially on the perimeter). I wouldn’t be surprised to see LeBron James matched up against Nowitzki at different times during this series. Given that Nowitzki is playing at such a high level right now, I don’t think it really matters who is guarding him.
Edge: Nowitzki and the Mavericks
Center Match Up
After a couple disappointing and injury plagued seasons in New Orleans and Charlotte, Tyson Chandler seems to have resurrected his career in Dallas. Chandler gives the Mavericks a much needed presence in the middle and someone who is still capable of posting impressive numbers, as evident by his opening round 14 point and 20 rebound game against the Portland Trail Blazers (Game 5). At 28 years old, Chandler still runs the court well for his size. He his quick and agile, and his long arms allow him to be an effective shot blocker. The Mavericks have used Chandler in picks and roll match ups during these playoffs, as his athletic ability allows him to convert on alley oops. Perhaps the biggest improvement in Chandler’s game since he joined the Mavericks is his drastic improvement at the foul line. Once a 50% shooter from the charity stripe, Chandler shot 73.2% this year. This allows coach Carlisle the freedom to keep Chandler on the court during late game situations, without having to worry about him being a liability. Chandler averaged 11 points, 13 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and shot 80% from the field in his two regular season match ups against the Heat.
Third year player Joel Anthony has developed into the Heat’s primary weapon at the center position. Anthony earns his minutes on the court with his passionate play on the defensive side of the ball. Although a bit undersized for the center position, Anthony is an extremely effective shot blocker. His 31 total blocks ranks third during this postseason play. Anthony isn’t too much of a threat on the offensive side of the ball. He will look to do most of his damage off of put backs, as well as short range lay ups or dunks. Anthony is averaging 30.1 minutes per game during this post season.
I love the way Anthony competes on the defensive side of the ball, however he will have a tough time keeping Chandler off the glass in this series. Chandler is taller, more athletic, and simply more polished at this point in his career than Anthony. If Chandler can avoid cheap fouls during this series, I think he will continue to produce for coach Carlisle and the Mavericks.
Edge: Chandler and the Mavericks
Bench Match up
The Mavericks have extreme depth and versatility coming off their bench. Back up point guard Jose Juan Barea is a spark plug for coach Carlisle off the bench. He is an extremely quick and strong with the ball in his hands. Jason Terry has scored double figures in 13 out of 15 Mavericks playoff games thus far and is thriving in the sixth man role for the Mavericks during the last couple of seasons. A proven clutch shooter during his 11 year NBA career, Terry has been playing at a very high level in these playoffs, as his PPG(+1.5), FG%(+2.0%), and 3P%(+10.1%) have all increased over his regular season averages. Center Brendan Haywood gives the Mavericks depth at the center position and veteran sharp shooter Peja Stojakovic provides the Mavericks one of the best three-point shooters in the league off the bench.
The Heat aren’t nearly as deep in off the bench as the Mavericks. You can mainly look for Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and Mario Chalmers to get extended minutes off the bench for Eric Spoelstra. James Jones and Zydrunas Ilgauskas might get minutes in this series as well. Miller and Chalmers are the probably the two most important players coming off the bench for the Heat. Miller is one of the better rebounding guards in the NBA, and his versatility could play a key role in this series. Chalmers, as mentioned earlier, is a far more effective defender than Mike Bibby. If Bibby continues to struggle with his shot, look for Chalmers to get more minutes in this series.
The Mavericks have a decisive edge in this department, for the simple fact that they can bring a bona fide scorer off their bench with the talent and experience of Terry. Barea, Stojakovic, and Haywood all fill much needed roles on the Mavericks roster. I look for the Mavericks bench to be a huge factor in this series.
Edge: Mavericks
Prediction
This has the makings off an NBA Finals classic. There are storylines around every corner heading into this match up. Will the Big 3 make good on their promise to deliver a championship back to Miami? Can Nowitzki redeem himself against the same Heat franchise that stole a championship from him back in 2006? Is this the beginning of a dynasty for the Heat franchise? The stage is set for what should be a truly remarkable series.
I believe the Mavericks have too many offensive weapons in this series for the Heat. Various players can score at any time on the court for the Mavericks, the same can’t be said of the Heat. And although the Heat are the better defensive unit, the Mavericks have proven they can get stops when needed. James and Wade have done an excellent job closing out games in these playoffs, they will need to continue their stellar play for the Heat to match the firepower of the Mavericks roster in this series.
In the end, look for the Mavericks veteran leadership to be the ultimate difference maker in this series. Players such as Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, and Marion know that this could be their last realistic chance at a title. I predict Nowitzki continues his hot shooting during this series, and the Mavericks finally bring home an NBA championship for the city of Dallas.
Mavericks in 7
source: http://sports-glutton.com/2011/05/29/2011-nba-finals-preview-dallas-mavericks-vs-miami-heat/
